This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. Extensive flooding results. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. Summary map showing ARkStorm predicted maximum daily precipitation map, plausible flooded areas, maximum winds, and landslide susceptibility. Based on the intervals of known occurrences, ranging from 51 to 426 years, scientists have concluded that these events have a mean return period of around 150–200 years. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. And how bad the next "mega storm" might be, and when it might take place, is in flux because of climate change. Business interruption costs could reach $325 billion, in addition to the $400 billion required for property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost a total of $725 billion, nearly three times the amount of damage predicted by the ", This page was last edited on 12 December 2020, at 02:59. Aside from earthquakes and fires, this is likely California’s next “Big One.” The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Up to 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties would need to evacuate due to flooding. [3], The USGS sediment research in the San Francisco Bay Area, Santa Barbara basin, Sacramento Valley, and Klamath Mountain region have indicated that "megastorms" similar to the ARkStorm scenario have occurred in the following years A.D.: 212, 440, 603, 1029, c. 1300, 1418, 1605, 1750, 1810, and December 1861–January 1862 (the latest occurrence). Scientists warn the initial ARkStorm simulation is a cautious scenario; the reality of the next “mega storm” could be far worse. And how bad the next “mega storm” might be, and when it might take place, is in flux because of climate change. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. Swain and his team are working on a new ARkStorm simulation. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. This report is available only on the Web. Rendering by USGS of what a "mega ARkStorm" could look like. Thumbnail Medium Original. Swain and his team are working on a new ARkStorm simulation. Detailed Description. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. If the ARkStorm scenario were to occur, it would have the following effects: Hypothetical but scientifically realistic megastorm scenario, "California Washed Away: The Great Flood of 1862", "The Biblical Flood That Will Drown California", USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project: ARkStorm: West Coast Storm Scenario, USGS Newsroom: ARkStorm: California’s other "Big One", Weather Underground - The ARkStorm: California's coming great deluge, High Country News: The other Big One, Judith Lewis, Water Education Foundation, Mar-Apr 2011: Plausible and Inevitable: The ARkStorm Scenario, by Gary Pitzer, "California: The Flood That Could Change Everything", "California Megaflood: Lessons from a Forgotten Catastrophe", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=ARkStorm&oldid=993718373, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Wind speeds in some places would reach 125 miles per hour (200 km/h). (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour.
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